Petrobras raises 2026 production and investment projections
- Total oil and gas production guidance rises to 3.3–3.4 million boed; oil and NGL output to 2.7–2.8 million bpd.
- 2026 Capex rises to US$24–25.5 billion, while cash investment is projected at US$21–22 billion; the update does not increase total project costs.
- Operating cash generation is revised to US$45–50 billion, from US$35 billion.
- Manageable operating expenses rise to US$24.2–25.5 billion, while lease-flow guidance increases to US$11–11.5 billion.
Production
Petrobras raised its 2026 total oil and gas production estimate from 3.1 million boed to 3.3–3.4 million boed. Oil and NGL production guidance increased from 2.5 million bpd to 2.7–2.8 million bpd. The revision reflects improved operational efficiency, reservoir management, increased project capacity, faster platform ramp-ups and the earlier first oil from P-79 in Búzios.
Investment and cash generation
2026 Capex guidance for projects in execution rose from US$19.4 billion to US$24–25.5 billion. Cash investment guidance increased from US$16.9 billion to US$21–22 billion. Petrobras said the changes do not represent an increase in total project costs. Factors include exchange rates, project execution ahead of plan, progress on FPSOs for Búzios, Atapu and Sépia, more available drilling rigs and well interconnections. Capex also reflects the projected nationalization of the Búzios 9 and 10 platforms in 2026. Cash investment includes bonuses from October ANP auctions, payable in December.
Operating cash generation guidance increased from US$35 billion to US$45–50 billion, reflecting the updated Brent price level and higher oil and derivatives production.
Operating expenses and lease flow
Manageable operating expenses guidance rose from US$20.2 billion to US$24.2–25.5 billion, mainly due to exchange rates, higher production and logistics costs. Despite the increase, expenses per barrel produced are projected to fall 2% from the 2025 level. Lease-flow guidance increased from US$10 billion to US$11–11.5 billion, reflecting production growth and accelerated E&P projects requiring more rigs, support vessels and export tankers.
Source: Petrobras