Vaca Muerta oil resources increased 89% to 30,170 million barrels

Key finding

The IAPG-led study estimates 30,170 million barrels of technically recoverable oil in the Vaca Muerta Formation, an 89% increase over the U.S. EIA’s 2013 estimate of 16,220 million barrels.

Methodology and authorship

The evaluation was requested by the Energy Secretariat in October 2025 and carried out by a multisectoral team including YPF, Pluspetrol, Pan American Energy, Pampa Energía, Vista, Chevron and Tecpetrol, plus academics from the University of Buenos Aires and the National University of La Plata, IAPG and Secretariat specialists. The analysis used a probabilistic volumetric approach consistent with the PRMS 2018 standard and was endorsed by IAPG and both universities.

Drivers of the upgrade

The study attributes the increase to three technical factors acting together: a 22% expansion of the useful prospective area, a 39% increase in useful formation thickness as more pay intervals are deemed drillable, and a 54% rise in the recovery factor due to improved well spacing and advances in drilling and hydraulic stimulation.

Infrastructure and policy context

Authorities note that the Incentive Regime for Large Investments (RIGI) and expanded evacuation capacity—including the VMOS pipeline and proposed LNG projects by Southern Energy and YPF/ENI—improve conditions for developing and exporting these resources. The oil study complements an IAPG gas resources report and is formalized in Resolution 157/2025.