SkyNRG and ICF — Sustainable Aviation Fuel Market Outlook 2026

Overview

The sixth edition of the SAF Market Outlook, produced with ICF, finds the market shifting from voluntary uptake to a compliance-driven phase; supplied SAF volumes doubled to approximately 2 Mt (0.7 Bgal) in 2025 and the central case expects demand to reach 12.8 Mt (4.2 Bgal) by 2030.

Demand outlook

Policy mandates, energy security and industrial strategy increasingly shape demand. Regional approaches are diverging: Europe focuses on demand certainty and de-risking, the United States on incentives and protectionism, and Asia on industrial policy and capacity scaling.

Capacity outlook

Global SAF capacity is forecast to reach 18.5 Mt (6.1 Bgal) by 2030, but the report flags HEFA feedstock pressures and bankability delays for advanced pathways that could create a post-2030 supply gap despite growing lender interest in de-risked projects.

Methodology

The ICF SAF Demand Model uses a bottom-up, country-level assessment of passenger and cargo traffic, fleets, and fuel use, translating these into jet fuel demand—projected at 460 Mt (152 Bgal) in 2050—and applies three scenarios: Existing Policies, Current Trends and Accelerated Action.

Energy resilience

Recent geopolitical disruptions have highlighted vulnerabilities in global fuel supply chains; the report argues SAF can strengthen resilience by diversifying aviation fuel sources and, when produced from domestic feedstocks, reducing reliance on imported fossil fuels.