Moeve: Green molecules could cut Europe’s energy dependency by half by 2040
- Moeve and PwC estimate green molecules could reduce Europe’s external energy dependency from 57% in 2024 to 28% by 2040.
- Under a Net Zero scenario, renewable hydrogen, derivatives, second‑generation biofuels and biomethane could replace 30–50% of fossil fuel demand and form about one‑third of the EU energy mix by 2050, reducing CO2 by up to 22%.
- The report finds the green premium declines along the value chain, limiting consumer price impacts—for example, green shipping fuels would add roughly €0.50 to a €100 pair of sneakers.
- Key enablers are market‑creating regulation, early financial support, scaled production/transport/storage infrastructure, and public‑private partnerships, with the 2020s decisive to prepare for scale‑up from 2030.
Main findings
According to the Moeve report developed with PwC, green molecules such as renewable hydrogen and its derivatives, second‑generation biofuels and biomethane could reduce Europe’s external energy dependency from 57% in 2024 to 28% by 2040. Under a Net Zero scenario these solutions could replace 30–50% of fossil fuel demand and represent roughly one‑third of the EU energy mix by 2050, lowering CO2 emissions by up to 22% and addressing hard‑to‑electrify sectors including heavy industry, chemicals and long‑haul transport.
Costs and timing
The analysis acknowledges a current "green premium" but concludes its impact falls along the value chain, limiting final consumer price increases from 2030 onwards; an illustrative example cites a ~€0.50 increase on a €100 pair of sneakers shipped from Asia using green fuels. Second‑generation biofuels (HVO, SAF) are expected to reach cost parity with fossil fuels in the 2030s, while synthetic fuels from green hydrogen are projected to follow in the 2040s.
Policy and investment priorities
To unlock the potential of green molecules the report calls for coordinated policy and industry action: regulatory frameworks that create markets and clear demand signals, financial support to close early‑stage cost gaps, scaling infrastructure across production, transport and storage, and strengthened public‑private partnerships. The study stresses the current decade is decisive to build the infrastructure and supply chains needed for rapid deployment from 2030 onwards and to preserve European industrial competitiveness.
Source: Moeve
