- Platinum, ruthenium and iridium are forecast in deficit for 2026, with platinum demand expected to fall 8% despite record prices.
- Palladium demand is set to decline 9% and rhodium 6%, but both could record small surpluses as automotive recycling and secondary recoveries rebound.
- Two large European green-hydrogen projects will enable first commercial-scale iridium use in PEM electrolysis, lifting iridium demand while supply stays stable.
- EU proposes replacing a 2035 ICE ban with a 90% CO2 reduction target offset by green steel and renewable fuels, prolonging autocatalyst use in PHEVs and REEVs.
PGM market overview
Platinum group metals saw strong price gains, with platinum at an all-time high in January 2026; all PGMs were in deficit in 2025 and 2026 forecasts show deficits for platinum, ruthenium and iridium while palladium and rhodium may post small surpluses, supported by higher recycling.
Platinum
Platinum is expected to record a fourth consecutive supply shortfall in 2026 despite an 8% demand decline as lower mine shipments from South Africa and Russia outweigh a rebound in automotive recycling; industrial use stays firm but BEV growth reduces autocatalyst demand and jewellery/investment demand is set to retreat.
Palladium and rhodium
Palladium demand is forecast down ~9% with ETF outflows and weaker gasoline-vehicle production, while Russian mine output falls to multi-decade lows; robust automotive recycling could shift palladium into a small surplus, and rhodium may also post a modest surplus as secondary recoveries hit four-year highs and demand falls ~6%.
Ruthenium and iridium
Ruthenium demand is seen down ~6% but the market remains in significant deficit as data-centre HDD demand rises to a five-year high despite weaker chemical-sector consumption; iridium demand could edge higher with two large European green-hydrogen projects bringing first commercial-scale PEM electrolysis use, leaving a modest deficit on stable supply.
Risks and regulation
Middle East disruption could further reduce industrial PGM demand, notably in chemicals via Strait of Hormuz impacts; EU CO2 policy changes—targeting a 90% emissions reduction with offsets instead of a 2035 ICE ban—are likely to prolong autocatalyst use in highly electrified hybrids such as PHEVs and REEVs.
