Equinor Capital Markets Day 2026 — plan to grow energy, cash flow and returns

Strategy focus

The company presented a strategy to deliver more energy, grow cash flow and generate superior returns to 2030, centred on maximising value on the Norwegian continental shelf (NCS), focused international oil and gas growth, building an integrated power business and expanding trading and market optimisation.

Production and portfolio targets

Overall production is targeted to grow by 150,000 boe/d to 2.3 million boe/d by 2030. The NCS production outlook was raised by 100,000 boe/d to 1.35 million boe/d in 2030 and 1.3 million boe/d in 2035. International oil and gas production is targeted to grow by 30% to about 950,000 boe/d by 2030.

Financial guidance

Cash flow from operations after tax is expected to grow 30% from 2025–2030. Organic investments are expected around USD 12 billion (about USD 10 billion including Empire Wind tax credits), with annual capex of USD 11–13 billion for 2028–2030. Free cash flow after capex and lease payments is expected to exceed USD 40 billion for 2026–2030, and ROACE is targeted above 15% annually from 2026–2030.

Capital distribution

The 2026 share buy-back programme will be increased to up to USD 3 billion, with a range-based guidance of USD 2–4 billion per year from 2027, conditioned on oil prices of USD 60–80/bbl, European gas USD 7–11/MMBtu, balance sheet strength and macro outlook; dividend per share is planned to grow by more than 5% annually.

Power, trading and emissions

Power production is expected to rise to more than 20 TWh by 2030, funded by about 10% of capex, while trading and market optimisation income is targeted to increase ~25% to around USD 500 million per quarter by 2030. The company maintains ambitions to reduce operated emissions by 50% toward 2030 and to lower net carbon intensity by 15–30% by 2035 (scope 1, 2 and 3).