- EBITDA forecast for 2025 is now EUR 700-1,100 million, down from EUR 1,000-1,400 million.
- FOCF forecast is revised to EUR -400 to +100 million, previously EUR 0-300 million.
- ROCE over WACC is expected between -9 and -5 percentage points, down from -6 to -3.
- Greenhouse gas emissions are projected to be 4.2-4.8 million tons.
Revised Financial Forecast
Covestro has adjusted its financial outlook for 2025, citing a persistently weak global economy with no immediate recovery in sight. The company now expects EBITDA to range between EUR 700 million and EUR 1,100 million, a reduction from the previous forecast of EUR 1,000 million to EUR 1,400 million. The consensus had anticipated an EBITDA of EUR 931 million.
Cash Flow and Capital Returns
The forecast for free operating cash flow (FOCF) has also been revised, now expected to be between EUR -400 million and EUR +100 million, compared to the earlier projection of EUR 0 million to EUR 300 million. Analysts had expected FOCF to be EUR 106 million. Additionally, the return on capital employed over weighted average cost of capital (ROCE over WACC) is now projected to be between -9 and -5 percentage points, down from the previous estimate of -6 to -3 percentage points.
Environmental Impact
Despite the financial adjustments, Covestro's greenhouse gas emissions, measured in CO2 equivalents, are expected to remain unchanged, ranging between 4.2 million tons and 4.8 million tons.
Second Quarter Performance
In the second quarter of 2025, Covestro's preliminary EBITDA was EUR 270 million, aligning with the previous forecast range of EUR 200 million to EUR 300 million. This figure was bolstered by the release of EUR 43 million in bonus provisions, consistent with the reduced full-year forecast. The consensus had expected an EBITDA of EUR 220 million for this period.
