BP Q2 2026 trading statement

Headline outlook

Reported upstream production is expected to be 2,170–2,220 mboe/d in Q2 2026 (Q1: 2,339 mboe/d), reflecting seasonal maintenance mainly in the Gulf of America and disruption in the Middle East. Within this, gas & low carbon energy is forecast at 750–770 mboe/d (Q1: 798) and oil production & operations at 1,420–1,450 mboe/d (Q1: 1,541).

Segment earnings drivers

Realizations versus Q1 are expected to add roughly $0.5–0.7bn for gas & low carbon energy, $1.8–2.1bn for oil production & operations (including price-lag effects in the Gulf of America and UAE), and $1.2–1.4bn from stronger refining margins. Exploration write-offs are expected near $(0.5)bn, primarily reflecting the Bay du Nord sale. Customers & products will see seasonally higher volumes, lower throughput from planned turnarounds (1,445–1,475 mb/d vs Q1 1,527) and slightly higher oil trading results.

Balance sheet and other items

Net debt is expected at $22–23bn (Q1: $25.3bn) after the €2.5bn perpetual hybrid redemption on 22 June 2026 and a $1.1bn Gulf of America settlement payment; remaining hybrids are expected around $13bn. The group underlying effective tax rate is expected between 33% and 37%. Post-tax adjusting items include impairments of around $1.0bn, mainly in transition businesses in gas & low carbon energy, excluded from underlying RC profit.

Trading environment and sensitivity

Q2 marker averages: Brent $103.85/bbl (Q1: $81.13), Henry Hub $2.90/mmBtu (Q1: $5.05), bp RIM $29.6/bbl (Q1: $16.9). BP’s rules of thumb for 2026 full-year pre-tax sensitivity are roughly $340m per $1/bbl Brent, $40m per $0.10/mmBtu Henry Hub and $550m per $1/bbl RIM. Group results for Q2 2026 are scheduled for publication on 4 August 2026.