BASF raises 2026 EBITDA outlook after stronger Q2 results

Quarter results

Sales for Q2 2026 rose 16% to €17.2 billion, primarily from higher prices (+11%) and higher volumes (+7%), with minor negative currency and portfolio effects (-1% each). EBITDA before special items was €2.4 billion, well above analyst consensus and the prior-year quarter (€1.6 billion). EBITDA improved in all segments except Surface Technologies; Materials, Industrial Solutions and Agricultural Solutions notably exceeded analyst estimates.

Profit, special items and disposals

Reported EBITDA was about €2.0 billion after special items, driven mainly by transformation costs related to cost-savings programs and new ERP implementations. EBIT before special items was roughly €1.5 billion. Net income reached €4.1 billion, substantially boosted by a €3.9 billion pre-tax disposal gain from the coatings transaction with Carlyle, which closed on June 30, 2026; the related tax expense is described as a mid‑triple‑digit million‑euro amount.

Cash flow and outlook

Free cash flow in Q2 was likely minus €0.2 billion, versus plus €0.5 billion a year earlier, reflecting lower operating cash flow (€0.5 billion) and higher capital tied up due to elevated raw material prices; capex/payments were about €0.7 billion. BASF raised its full‑year 2026 EBITDA before special items guidance to €6.9–7.7 billion (previously €6.2–7.0 billion) while keeping free cash flow guidance at €1.5–2.3 billion.

Assumptions and risks

The revised outlook uses adjusted 2026 assumptions: GDP growth 2.5%, industrial production 2.0%, chemical production 1.8%, average EUR/USD $1.17 and Brent $80/barrel. BASF notes continued high uncertainty, citing potential disruptions to Middle East shipping (Strait of Hormuz) as a key downside risk.

BASF will publish its Half‑Year Financial Report 2026 on July 29, 2026, and host related analyst and press calls.